IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon at 92% LPA Amid El Niño Fears
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its first long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon, predicting a 'below-normal' seasonal rainfall of 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This quantitative estimate, announced by IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, carries a model error of +/- 5%. The LPA for the country, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm (870 mm), meaning this year's anticipated rainfall is approximately 80 cm (800 mm). The primary factor behind the subdued outlook is the anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions around June. Historical data from the IMD, as highlighted in the reports, shows that in 7 out of 10 El Niño years, the monsoon has been deficient or severely deficient. Private forecaster Skymet Weather corroborates the concern, predicting a slightly higher but still below-normal figure of 94% of LPA, suggesting this could be one of the driest monsoons in at least eight years. The spatial distribution indicates that while most parts of the country, including most of Andhra Pradesh, will experience below-normal rainfall, some regions in the Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India may see normal to above-normal precipitation. The forecast raises significant concerns for the crucial kharif sowing season, which is already under strain from a fertiliser shortage linked to geopolitical tensions. The IMD is expected to issue a more detailed, second-stage forecast in mid-May.
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India Monsoon Forecast: IMD predicts ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall over the country amid growing risk of El Niño | India News - The Times of India
NEW DELHI: In what may be bad news ... risk of El Niño conditions, which is invariably linked to depressed rainfall over the Indian sub-continent during the season."Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5%,” said IMD chief, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, while releasing the first stage long-range monsoon forecast...
IMD predicts below-normal monsoon in 2026, forecasts rainfall at 92% of long-period average
The outlook raises concerns for ... monsoon likely to impact the crucial kharif sowing season, already under strain due to a fertiliser shortage linked to the US-Israel war on Iran. The IMD is expected to issue a second-stage forecast in mid-May. The LPA for seasonal rainfall across the country, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 870 mm. This year, rainfall is anticipated to be around 800 mm. The low rainfall forecast is primarily attributed to the emergence of strong El Niño ...
The El Niño phenomenon could result in one of the driest monsoons in India in at least eight years. Private forecaster Skymet has predicted: the rainfall is likely to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA), or below-normal.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted that the country will witness a below normal rainfall this monsoon. India is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall during the season, the long period average (1971-2020) of the seasonal rainfall is 87 cm.
One of the reasons for below normal rainfall could be the emergence of the El Nino conditions, which cause less rainfall in the country. According to the IMD, climate models indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to emerge around the month of June. ... Currently, weak La Nina conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. Also, climate models show that during the second half of the monsoon ...
IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for most of A.P. during Southwest Monsoon - The Hindu
SEE ALL NEWSLETTERS Children ... Search for topics, people, articles... India Elections World Sport Data Health Opinion Science Entertainment Premium ... Like the rest of the country, most of Andhra Pradesh is also expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon between June and September this year, according to the long-range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD...
As El Nino shadow looms, IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon at 92% LPA| India News
New Delhi: Monsoon clouds hover in the sky over Raisina Hill in New Delhi on Aug 17, 2020. (PTI FILE) The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 1971-2020 is 87 cm. The spatial distribution released by IMD suggests that the below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely ...
Monsoon poor in every 7 out of 10 El Nino years | India News - The Times of India
Of the 13 such years, the monsoon was deficient or severely deficient (below 90% of long period average) in seven, below normal (90-96%) in two, normal in three and excess in one. Of the two below-normal years, rains in 2018 was close to deficient (below 91%). According to IMD, which uses a ...
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