NOAA Predicts Strong El Niño for 2026-2027 Winter Season
The Climate Prediction Center reports an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by July, with a 96% probability that the pattern persists through the winter of 2026-2027. There is growing concern over a "super El Niño," with the likelihood of such an event occurring between November 2026 and January 2027 rising to 37%. These conditions are expected to influence global weather patterns, potentially leading to a below-average Atlantic hurricane season and record-breaking global heat in 2027. Regional impacts vary, with forecasts suggesting cooler, wetter summers for parts of the U.S. Midwest and increased tropical storm activity in the Pacific.
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The chances of a rare 'super El Niño' occurring in 2026 just got higher. Here's how it could wreak havoc on the weather.
What’s less certain is how strong this year’s El Niño will be. According to the new NWS forecast, however, the odds of a “super El Niño” occurring between November 2026 and January 2027 have risen from 25% last month to 37% today — meaning that the U.S.
After a neutral winter, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have been climbing steadily since March. NOAA now puts the odds of El Niño emerging by May-June-July at 82%, rising to a 96% chance it persists through the core of winter (December 2026–February 2027).
Many record-hot years—including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024—followed major El Niño events or developed alongside them. Climate scientists interviewed by AFP said global heat records could fall in 2026—but 2027 was the year to watch.
NOAA reveals 2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast as Super El Niño looms
NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Thursday, predicting a below-average season with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, which include 1 to 3 major (Category 3+) storms this year.
A developing El Niño pattern could bring a cooler, wetter-than-normal summer to the Edwardsville area, according to climate experts. The Climate Prediction Center reports there is an 82% chance El Niño conditions will emerge between now and July, with a 96% chance the pattern will continue ...
NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts a below-average number of storms - CBS News
On the West Coast, the effect goes in the other direction: the warmer Pacific waters in an El Niño help enable tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific to develop and stay fully structured vertically. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said last week that there's at least an 82% chance ...
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